The idea
The FCI* forecast treats the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) forecasts for real GDP growth and core PCE inflation as if they were realized, and runs the model's filter one quarter forward. Forecasters disagree, though. The table below recomputes FCI* at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the SPF forecasts — rows are inflation, columns are GDP growth — so you can see how much the estimate leans on the macro inputs. The forecasts are for —, made in the — SPF survey.
Current estimate (—)
FCI* across SPF percentiles
FCI* for — (from the — SPF survey) if real GDP growth and core PCE inflation came in at the given percentiles (annualized %). The center cell is the headline forecast. The percentiles are cross-forecaster disagreement, not an outcome probability.